Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Kentucky

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Kentucky in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Kentucky in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 72.4% for Kentucky for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.727) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.003).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.4750 6.18%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.4880 -1.50%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1887 -2.92%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0794 -0.62%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0791 -4.74%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0312 0.25%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0263 -0.61%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.1938 1.67%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0217 -0.29%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0267 0.13%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0299 -0.35%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.1142 -1.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.0889 -1.09%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0031 0.03%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0132 -0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0805 1.39%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0260 -0.37%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.1765 3.47%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0792 1.00%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0348 -0.63%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0655 1.90%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0406 -0.12%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.0048 -0.05%
Low Income 0.0081 0.0875 0.07%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0107 -0.06%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0000 0.00%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0036 -0.07%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.7653 14.46%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.6537 1.03%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0000 0.00%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0206 0.13%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0089 -0.04%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 1.0000 2.20%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 47.0000 -0.86%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0100 2.12%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0419 3.61%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.1333 2.53%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0131 -7.00%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0501 -24.39%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1152 43.28%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2356 19.40%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1073 -9.57%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0247 11.19%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0476 10.55%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0419 2.86%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,357 for Kentucky for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40384) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35027).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.4684 -$1,331
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5039 -$434
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1898 -$597
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0737 -$390
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0589 -$357
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0331 $8
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0259 -$114
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.2091 -$486
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0217 -$138
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0262 -$71
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0296 $207
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.1127 $41
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.0924 $76
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0033 -$4
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0141 $80
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0830 $336
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0247 $211
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.2009 $194
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0835 $303
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0268 -$27
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0633 -$85
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0396 -$175
Single Parent 145.7630 0.0052 $1
Low Income -332.4067 0.0801 -$27
Homeless -446.4262 0.0087 -$4
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0000 $0
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0027 -$5
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.8424 $680
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 6518.4600 $2,381
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.6347 $1,277
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.0000 $0
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0000 $0
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0236 $22
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0087 $1
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 1.0000 -$205
Median Days in Program 3.2489 48.0000 $156
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0100 $240
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0419 $1,355
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.1333 $5,231
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0131 -$632
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0501 $204
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1152 $11,145
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2356 $13,230
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1073 $6,188
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0247 $266
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0476 $1,889
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0419 -$256

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 21.6% for Kentucky for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.784) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.568).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.6667 -24.09%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.0000 0.00%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.0000 0.00%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0000 0.00%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0000 0.00%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.1667 -2.03%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1667 -3.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0000 0.00%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.5000 18.24%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.1667 -5.07%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0000 0.00%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0000 0.00%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.0000 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6667 -0.08%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.5000 3.26%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.3333 -4.32%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 1.0000 7.32%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 605.5000 21.47%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 674.5000 -16.45%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0000 0.00%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0100 10.00%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0419 37.42%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.1333 161.65%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0131 -57.52%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0501 158.96%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1152 87.26%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2356 233.89%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1073 27.70%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0247 81.27%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0476 -0.68%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0419 -56.73%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 74.8% for Kentucky for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.683) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.431).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.3782 2.25%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4829 0.91%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2675 -0.45%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1138 1.21%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1103 -2.10%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0353 0.42%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0173 -0.50%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.1458 -0.52%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0156 1.37%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0213 -0.21%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0217 -0.42%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.1109 -0.29%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1052 -2.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0053 -0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0146 -0.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.0820 -1.19%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0271 -0.33%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.1329 1.41%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0487 -0.12%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0276 -0.15%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0847 0.05%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0271 -0.68%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0031 0.01%
Low Income -0.0518 0.0534 -0.28%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0064 0.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0000 0.00%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0108 -0.25%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8429 9.53%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.7605 4.37%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.0000 0.00%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.0571 0.28%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0131 -0.17%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 1.0000 -5.12%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 73.0000 0.06%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0100 -2.02%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0419 -1.96%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.1333 -22.75%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0131 -12.99%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0501 -31.44%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1152 -41.50%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2356 -46.99%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1073 -30.60%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0247 7.52%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0476 5.86%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0419 1.72%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,745 for Kentucky for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 37486) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-29741).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.3799 -$722
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4975 $555
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2767 -$35
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1051 -$223
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0923 -$230
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0369 -$32
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0169 -$79
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.1555 -$239
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0148 -$48
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0203 -$72
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0212 -$79
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.1101 -$154
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1089 -$207
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0053 $0
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0145 $22
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.0809 $95
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0276 $59
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.1478 $251
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0509 $193
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0235 $7
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0811 $117
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0277 -$82
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0033 -$3
Low Income -538.7097 0.0509 -$27
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0059 $46
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0000 $0
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0087 $2
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8895 $19
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 7662.9900 $702
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.7504 $1,012
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.0000 $0
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0000 $0
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.0565 $10
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0142 $7
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 1.0000 -$403
Median Days in Program 2.2222 70.0000 $156
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0100 -$272
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0419 $1,536
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.1333 $6,291
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0131 -$3,416
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0501 $4,304
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1152 $10,945
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2356 $12,055
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1073 $4,719
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0247 -$112
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0476 $1,061
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0419 -$243

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 30.9% for Kentucky for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.39) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.082).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.2885 -4.35%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5769 -3.78%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2572 6.21%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0745 3.41%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0577 5.27%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0108 -0.72%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0084 -0.45%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0697 -2.30%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0096 2.54%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0108 0.05%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4519 -8.68%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2692 -6.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0637 -1.66%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1262 3.31%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.0517 -0.58%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0120 -0.51%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.1310 -0.28%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0817 -2.16%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0072 -1.04%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0781 -7.21%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0072 0.33%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0325 1.20%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0036 0.17%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.1851 0.53%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0012 0.05%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0072 0.26%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.2825 -1.74%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0012 -0.05%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0048 -1.86%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.9928 -9.56%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 527.0000 -16.93%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 476.5000 -13.03%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0276 0.45%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0100 -8.07%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0419 18.65%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.1333 131.40%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0131 -77.04%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0501 61.12%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1152 184.94%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2356 168.75%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1073 16.23%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0247 161.49%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0476 -13.57%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0419 -45.30%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 61.5% for Kentucky for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.037) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.652).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5071 3.02%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0000 0.00%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.0799 -1.15%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.5220 -10.72%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2112 0.22%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.0203 -0.13%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0054 0.11%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.1192 -0.49%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0074 -0.40%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0074 -0.25%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0210 0.32%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.0440 0.30%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0115 -0.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0007 0.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0088 0.43%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2600 7.14%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.2146 0.76%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.0278 -0.13%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0264 -0.37%
Low Income 0.0375 0.6615 2.48%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0210 -0.42%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0000 0.00%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0074 -0.01%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.1327 -0.95%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.3406 1.19%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.3751 -3.25%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.3324 1.47%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0041 -0.06%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0000 0.00%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0129 0.05%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 1.0000 1.48%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 172.0000 -0.69%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0100 -6.78%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0419 -7.88%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.1333 -18.14%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0131 -9.58%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0501 -10.71%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1152 -29.45%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2356 0.58%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1073 -4.23%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0247 -26.69%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0476 15.72%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0419 -6.22%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $2,678 for Kentucky for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 13822) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11144).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.4847 -$910.06
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0000 $0.00
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.0611 -$80.01
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.5121 -$546.16
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2244 $145.78
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.0190 $36.29
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0042 $2.74
Race: Black -886.3703 0.1286 -$113.95
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0063 -$21.42
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0053 -$0.97
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0190 $17.70
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.0506 $70.00
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0148 -$12.22
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0095 $63.28
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.3214 $197.27
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1781 $97.27
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.0242 -$12.00
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0295 $72.47
Low Income -305.7985 0.6807 -$208.16
Homeless 983.9044 0.0242 $23.85
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0000 $0.00
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0063 $6.38
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.1328 $113.45
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.3456 -$97.98
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.3762 -$237.10
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0000 $0.00
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.3551 $57.23
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0042 -$0.78
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0000 $0.00
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0000 $0.00
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0148 $1.54
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.0000 $0.00
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 1.0000 -$27.87
Median Days in Program 0.5942 174.0000 $103.39
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0100 -$31.68
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0419 $460.81
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.1333 $2,874.59
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0131 -$727.89
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0501 $2,245.16
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1152 $1,637.87
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2356 $4,799.02
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1073 $760.64
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0247 $1,409.97
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0476 $2,075.63
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0419 -$422.33

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 57.0% for Kentucky for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.978) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.408).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.6154 -16.97%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0000 0.00%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.0000 0.00%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.5385 -37.68%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.2308 -37.86%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.0769 0.03%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0769 15.17%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.0769 -2.07%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0769 8.09%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0000 0.00%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.0769 0.17%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.0769 1.52%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.1538 -1.10%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0769 2.11%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0000 0.00%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 1.0000 -5.03%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 321.0000 -10.47%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0769 -2.65%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0100 7.62%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0419 40.13%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.1333 77.75%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0131 -56.19%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0501 -71.37%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1152 166.76%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2356 166.39%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1073 67.60%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0247 125.70%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0476 -34.97%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0419 -4.88%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 50.9% for Kentucky for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.106) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.597).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4687 3.75%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4899 5.32%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1950 -1.68%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0798 -0.06%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.0752 -0.47%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0324 0.75%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0255 -0.60%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.1920 -3.09%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0207 2.01%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0260 -0.80%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0297 0.73%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.1114 -0.19%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.0958 0.37%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0032 -0.01%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0141 0.49%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0883 -5.98%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0302 -1.58%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1378 1.19%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0787 -0.71%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0338 -1.20%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0686 1.49%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0418 -0.08%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0055 0.11%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0860 0.80%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0135 -0.09%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0000 0.00%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0062 -0.14%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.6187 19.63%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.6673 -10.28%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.0000 0.00%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0214 -0.22%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0089 -0.10%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 46.0000 -1.27%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0100 1.68%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0419 6.46%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.1333 13.50%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0131 -0.60%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0501 14.86%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1152 10.86%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2356 30.23%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1073 6.35%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0247 9.65%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0476 8.10%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0419 1.44%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,311 for Kentucky for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40509) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34198).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4553 -$1,264
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4956 $757
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.1998 $45
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0774 $134
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0636 $254
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0337 $51
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0240 -$31
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.2017 -$590
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0203 -$50
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0249 -$139
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0282 $301
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.1115 -$197
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.0933 -$203
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0034 -$7
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0141 $29
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0814 $6
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0245 -$123
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1943 $89
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0803 -$93
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0266 -$136
Veteran -913.8967 0.0652 -$60
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0371 $58
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0069 $5
Low Income 634.4633 0.0840 $53
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0088 -$31
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0000 $0
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0037 -$40
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8437 -$185
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 6610.8250 $1,726
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.6474 $499
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.0000 $0
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0000 $0
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0285 -$18
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0096 -$11
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0000 $0
Median Days in Program 0.8717 50.0000 $44
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0100 $370
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0419 $1,792
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.1333 $6,360
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0131 $148
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0501 $3,138
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1152 $7,820
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2356 $12,130
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1073 $4,616
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0247 $1,029
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0476 $2,446
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0419 -$213

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x